Aquaculture is currently being hailed as one of the fastest growing food systems in the world, growing from a few million tons in 1950 to over 90 million tons annually in more recent times. This has fueled hopes that aquaculture will be able to single-handedly meet the world's demand for fish, which has severely depleted wild fish stocks.
Researchers have modeled potential production and suggested ways to expand aquaculture based on suitable fish farming areas. Some came to the conclusion that production could be increased 100-fold. If you wanted to replace the entire wild catch, only 0,015% of the sea area would be required.
A research team from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel examined this very optimistic assessment. The result is sobering. The worldwide development of aquaculture of fish and crustaceans was examined.
Can aquaculture meet the demand for edible fish?
Based on the available data, it was determined that the growth rates are decreasing, i.e. production is approaching its maximum. FAO, World Bank and OECD expect an average annual demand for edible fish of more than 2030 million tons in 170. In contrast, these institutions then expect a production of 100 million tons. This results from an annual expansion of aquaculture of 2%.
Can't we expand aquaculture more?
Achieving the required tripling of the growth rate to 6% will require significant advances in research and management. On the other hand, there are also opposing factors that inhibit production. For example, the Covid pandemic has put a significant damper on the expansion. Added to this is the unequal distribution of production and consumption. China's share of production from aquaculture is more than half, while in South America wild capture dominates and needs to be replaced.
The sobering result
The expectation that the seas can continue to be fished empty and that the inevitable lack of food fish can be compensated for through aquaculture is an illusion. It is not entirely unjustified to point out that the overly optimistic hope for aquaculture serves as an argument to continue the short-sighted exploitation of seas and waters and to undermine demands for the protection of aquatic life.
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.984354/full